after a month’s absence we find that the British political map has been
redrawn. Now many of the changes were widely predicted – or at least
hoped for – but perhaps few thought that so many would be realised so
Labour Party were shown to have fallen for their own spin that the
traditionally industrial regions would always vote for them no matter
how little notice had been taken of their opinions. In the real world
seats like Bolsover were full of voters fed up with the Islington
doctrines. One typical result being that Dennis Skinner was ousted after
49 years of being the MP for this rock-solid labour constituency.
many of those MPs that had pushed their own agendas, rather than serve
the people that they were elected to represent, got what they deserved.
They wont be amongst those being sworn in to the new parliament next
the Brexit Party failed to get any of their candidates past the post in
first place. This is not what many had hoped for – yet their effect on
the result was far greater than either Labour or Conservative supporters
– and the BBC – would admit.
our own constituency. The Conservative vote was up by less than 1.5% yet
the well-liked sitting Labour candidate had a vote fall-off of almost
18%. Why? Because the Brexit Party took almost 14% of the vote. Not
enough to do better than third overall but enough to sink Labour. So
much for people who voted to leave the EU in 2016 having changed their
mind, having died off or having been replaced by more intelligent first time Labour / Remain voters.
What next? A Conservative government with 162 more MPs than a leaderless Labour opposition certainly changes the game plan – especially after replacing dissident Conservative MPs with loyal party supporters and getting a new Speaker. Changes that should remove many of the obstacles to progress. And ones that will have already been noted by our European partners.
treaty with the EU is far from ideal – or even being desirable – but in
practice the WTO option for leaving looks as dead as remaining. So
neither side of the EU membership debate actually gets a clear victory.
The outcome is coloured neither blue nor red but a muddy brown shade of
It’s 4 pm so nominations for candidates in next month’s general election have closed.
after a short delay a full list of potential members of parliament for
all 650 seats should be available to the voters. A list that should be
notable if only because of the number of changes since the last national
vote. Even without all the schemes for tactical voting – ie voting for
someone you don’t like so has to disadvantage someone you like even less
or just not fielding a candidate – there were around seventy seats
where the previous MP is not standing.
that there are also seats where the previous MP is standing but has
changed allegiance the total number of new MPs must be approaching a
hundred. And that does not allow for the fact that the Labour Party has
switched from – at best – neutral to firmly pro-EU. A move that that
will change voting patterns that have been in place for decades in some
the political turmoil of the past few years the 2019 result is going to
be hard to predict – but it is quite possible that Friday the 13th will
see the no end to the unrest …
November and the UK’s position with the European Union remains
unchanged. Despite all the promises we are still paying the EU vast
amounts so that they can spend our taxes on themselves and their pet
schemes in Europe and on aid around the world.
Now the mythical
leaving date has been moved to the end of January 2020. This gives the
politicians just thirteen weeks to complete their scrutiny and implement
some form of exit plan.
the first six of these weeks will be spent campaigning in a general
election. Then at least the next three will be spent getting the new
parliament in place and taking a Christmas-New Year break. Then no more
than four weeks will remain for the new balance of power to take control
and finalise a plan.
Of course the numbers are critical in determining how these four weeks progress – if at all. The so-called Liberal Democrats (George Orwell’s fictional NewSpeak
becomes fact!) intend to revoke our request to leave if they get the
chance. And there are constituencies that voted to remain in 2016 where
today’s voters think that this is acceptable practice. With a number of
MPs switching their allegiance the party could gain seats – but perhaps
not enough to have another female Prime Minister just yet [sorry Jo]
the Marx Brothers – and Sisters – say they will delay leaving yet again
so that they can negotiate a better leaving deal and then campaign to
remain through a second referendum. One that excludes the option to
leave as a free agent under world trade terms. Considering that many Grandads
from outside of Greater London who voted to leave in 2016 are also
traditional Labour voters this approach seems doomed from day one. The
only question is how many seats will Labour loose?
At the Shrine of the Dead Donkey the Conservative position is let’s back the May-Robbins-Johnson deal and move on. This policy could be good enough to convince enough voters and so add enough seats for a new government to have a working majority. Its major weakness is that it leaves the country shackled to our friends in Europe. And that man Barnier is already lined-up to extract the maximum punishment in the trade talks still to come. Given the time and effort spent to get to the current position – and what has happened with other trade deals – we could be suffering at the hands of the EU for many more years.
we have the party that highlighted the problems created when widely
divergent nations are tied to a common bureaucracy. In this election the
Brexit Party will suffer from being seen as a one issue party – and
from the Conservatives reluctance to spell out what their deal really
means. The voting public are smart enough to treat Euro elections
differently to domestic ones. So the TBP will not gain as many seats as
they did earlier this year. However they have the possibility of gaining
some and these could be critical in influencing the outcome of those
four weeks in January.
all depends on how well the implications – and shortcomings – of the
current deal can be explained. And if the new parliament reverses the
no-deal block that was imposed by political scaremongers in the last
Time to book some holidays away from all of this …
should, according to previous promises by our Prime Minster, be the
country’s last as a member of the European Union.
even though there are six remaining days for things to change, it seems
almost certain that leaving at the end of October will become another
promise that is broken.
the lack of a majority in parliament has left the country with a
government that is unable to govern. With an array of anti-exit
political factions and vested interests against it any meaningful
progress has become impossible – even the judiciary showed their bias.
Of course, for the many Grandads
happy to support leaving without the far-reaching constraints demanded
by the EU, this situation means that a bad deal has also been delayed –
so far. But with many politicians demanding that No-Deal is taken off the table the chances of the UK actually escaping the spider’s web of EU control next week seem slim.
giving up on the present parliament and having a general election does
offer a potential solution. But only if it results in a clear majority
of MPs being in one camp or the other. Recent experience shows that
another minority government could be the result – and then we are back
in the same situation by Christmas.
public’s view of our pseudo-democratic representatives must now have
fallen to an all-time low – with plenty of justification.
political wrangling reaches fever-pitch the mood amongst the general
population seems to range from despair to barely contained anger.
can so many of our elected representatives be so bad? Many – most –
ignore their constituents’ choices and play juvenile games in an
insulated metro bubble with zero regard for the well being of the
least the EU politburo is working towards an objective with a plan –
even though it is flawed plan to create a European Empire ruled by a
central cabal. Whereas every UK plan seems to be to try anything and
hope we can all muddle through. All the time expecting that everyone
involved will play the game with fairness and honesty. An ideal that
cuts little ice in the 21st century.
The next few weeks are supposed to be our last under EU control .. but we have all heard that so often before.
it is now 1,200 days since the EU membership referendum result and that
was preceeded by months if not years of pro- and anti- arguments you
would think that every possible issue had been covered.
no. Instead we have shrieks and wails from anti-Brexit factions
demanding months more of delays. For what? To discuss? To have a rigged
referendum? To have a damaged general election? Or simply to remain-
either by these repeated delays or by revoking our leave request?
Looking at our politicians – and judges – from outside of the metropolitan bubble gives Grandads little insight into their off-camera activities. But experience tells us that most are driven by self interest – be that personal, financial or idealogical. So we cannot see who is getting paid or benefiting from insider trading or who is trying to weaken or even break-up our country. But there can be little doubt that they exist.
outside of the UK we have little support from powerful EU figures –
unlike leaders in Australia and the United States for example. And the
typical EU view is that we are there to be exploited and restricted in
any way possible. Their words deny it – but their actions do not.
The country has to leave – and today would not be too soon!
five weeks to the next critical date the UK’s political pundits are
getting geared up for long spells in the limelight. Clearly a situation
that many of them enjoy. And this time the top lawyers and lobbyists are
adding to the twists and turns as they seek to turn political actions
into criminal activities.
the average Grandad is less worried about who said what and much more
concerned about how the eventual outcome will impact both him and his
today’s Grandads are too young to have fought in a world war – even
though there has still been too many conflicts since the 1940s. But they
have had to experience the crass stupidity, blatant self-interest and
false ideologies of too many politicians and civil servants over the
years. And the next few weeks seem likely to add more depressing
episodes in this long history of political infamy.
Just like watching a train wreck from a distance, it’s horrific but there’s nothing we can do to stop it …
horrors of the 1939-45 War fade from living memory they become just
another part of history. And our present day issues with the European
Union are almost always taken as short term; arguments unrelated to the
bigger picture or long term perspective.
are in a different mental compartment to Nazi plans for controlling
Europe from 1942. Yet the Treaty of Rome – the start of the current EU –
was produced just 8 years after troops from the Western Allies had to
carry out risky airlifts to get vital supplies to the people of West
Berlin for the eleven months of a Russian blockade. Indeed British
troops were still stationed in Germany when the Treaty was produced.
result few, if any, in those shouting, banner-waving mobs have any
concept of the plans behind the EU’s on-going fiscal and legislative
programme. To many a highlight of EU legislation is the capping mobile
phone roaming changes [seriously – this was circulated as a major reason
to remain just last month!]. Few have bothered to read – much less
digest – the plans dictated by top eurocrats and EU civil servants.
you would hope that all pro-EU activists – especially those who have
spent the past three years shouting down anyone who disagreed – would
have read what it says on the tin. Yet it seems not. Just this week we
saw a pro-EU placard-waving marcher asked for their three favourite
things about the EU. They could only think of one – the NHS!
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. [George Santayana]
too many weeks getting Mrs May to go, and then weeks more finding a
replacement, the Days-Not-Out total has grown to 1,125.
Looking forward there are now exactly 100 days to the latest deadline at the end of October.
will Mr Johnson be able to cut the EU apron strings by then or will he
simply get tangled up and have to call for yet another extension?
will be looking at the calendar and thinking that many of those 100
days are going to be taken up with holidays, party conferences and end
of term wind-downs for the outgoing EU leaders. Getting out in 100 days
is a big ask – so doing it in as few as 20 to 30 working days seems even
more problematic. When you add in the time that the Government might
need to spend on issues other than Brexit – and the number of
anti-Brexit trouble makers – Bojo will need to move very quickly to get
anything done in time.
He has the leadership of the Conservative Party – but very little control at Westminster. Place your bets now …