How Much Can YOU Afford?

Many months ago the EU picked a random amount, about £39,000 million, as the cost of leaving their club. And that remains the massive sum we need to shell out if the UK leaves via Mrs May’s Dead Donkey Deal – even if it takes years more of political argument to be passed by parliament.

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Now it won’t be the politicians that pay this colossal sum. It will be us the tax payers that pay – through increased council tax, VAT, fuel duty, income tax, national insurance, etc.

And in addition to paying directly we will have the indirect costs of reductions to benefits and services – like pensions, education and the NHS. Services already under pressure due to the increasing population.

But why has the amount demanded not been reduced by the payments already made?  And why are the nominal liabilities not being reduced as we approach the end of the budget period the EU claim we are liable for?

Despite this reducing liability our Brussels masters are demanding not just the huge Dead Donkey ransom payments but also additional payments for not leaving on time! A figure of £10,000 million per year has already been floated.

So can you, the tax payer, really afford to pay the enormous leaving fees being demanded? Can the country even afford to keep paying our existing membership fees – when so much of it goes to support other countries and the grandiose EU politburo? Is anyone thinking through what the current political decisions will mean for us and our children?

If Brussels and the Quislings in Westminster have their way YOU will have no alternative but to pay .. and pay …… and pay

For The Record

Statements by our Prime Minster, Theresa May, as officially recorded in Hansard –

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We will be leaving the European Union on 29 March. I believe we shall be leaving on 29 March with a good deal. / I did indeed confirm that our intent and what the Government are working for is to leave the European Union on 29 March / I am happy to repeat what I have said previously – that we will be leaving the European Union on 29 March / We have that date in our legislation: it is 29 March 2019 / We have put it into legislation, and this Government are committed to delivering exiting on 29 March / No, we are leaving the European Union, and we are leaving on 29 March 2019 / We will not be revoking article 50 or asking for the extension of article 50, and we will be leaving the EU on 29 March next year / We will be leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. After that date, we will no longer be a member of the EU / We are leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019. We are negotiating a future relationship with the European Union that will, indeed, deliver on the vote of the British people / I am happy to give that reassurance. We are leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019. / My hon. Friend said, I think, “if” we leave the European Union on 29 March 2019. Let me just confirm that we will be leaving on 29 March 2019 / We will be leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019 / we can and will leave the European Union on 29 March / I absolutely agree that we should be delivering on leaving the European Union, and we have been clear that that will be on 29 March / It is indeed correct that four fifths of this House voted to trigger article 50 – for a two-year process that ends on 29 March this year / but I have been clear that it is important that we deliver on the referendum vote and leave the European Union on 29 March / We will be leaving the EU on 29 March. I believe it is important that Parliament delivers on the vote that people took in 2016 / I am happy to confirm that we will be leaving the European Union on 29 March next year. I am grateful to my hon. Friend for pointing out the significant number of Members who stood on a manifesto commitment to deliver on the vote that people took in 2016 / I believe it is important for us to deliver on the vote that people took. We have it in our legislation that we will leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 / we will be leaving on 29 March next year. / This Parliament put the exit date into legislation, and we will be leaving on 29 March next year / Very simply: I am clear that we will be leaving the EU on 29 March 2019 / I do get from people an urgent desire to get this sorted—not to get a second referendum and a people’s vote but actually to deliver on the first vote and, to do so, to leave the European Union on 29 March. / My right hon. Friend has regularly asked me that question, and my answer has not changed. First, I believe that it is our duty to deliver leaving the European Union and, as he knows, there is a date in legislation for us to leave—it is 29 March. / No, we are not going to extend article 50. We have a timetable; we are working to it; and we will leave on 29 March 2019 / I want my hon. Friend and his constituents to be very clear that we will be leaving the EU on 29 March 2019 / We will be leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019 / I am happy to confirm to my hon. Friend, as I did a little earlier, that we will be leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019 and that we will be negotiating a smooth and orderly process, so that people can carry on living their lives .. / We will be leaving the common fisheries policy – and, as I indicated, the CAP – on 29 March 2019. / I thank my hon. Friend, and I can confirm that we will be leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019 / We put that amendment down because we believe it is important to confirm, and so that people have the confidence of knowing, the date we will leave the European Union, which is 29 March 2019 / I am clear that we will not extend article 50 and that we will leave the EU on 29 March next year / I told my hon. Friend the Member for Gainsborough (Sir Edward Leigh) that we will be leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019, and we will. / we will leave the European Union on 29 March next year / I am happy to give my right hon. Friend and others that reassurance. We are very clear that we will be leaving the EU on 29 March 2019 at 11 pm / As I said to my right hon. Friend the Member for New Forest East, we are going to leave on 29 March 2019 / We will be leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019. We will now be moving quickly to negotiate the details of the relationship / First, the hon. Gentleman says “should” the UK leave the EU. The UK is leaving the European Union, and that will happen on 29 March next year / we leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 and will no longer send vast sums … / etc, etc, etc, etc

Then yesterday Hansard records – I regret not being able to deliver Brexit on 29 March.

Update 26-Mar-2019 – Mrs May’s regret at the non-delivery of Brexit on the legally agreed date seems somewhat deceitful now that we know it was agreed by her without any reference to her Cabinet or to Westminster MPs. Reports confirm that our Brussels ambassador, Sir Tim Barrow, was instructed by Mrs May to commit the UK to extending the Article 50 period to April 12 without any discussion by or mandate from Parliament. The stitch-up continues …

Waiting For Anything …

Predictions of Mrs May’s demise have been made more than once before. This New Statesman cover dates from July 2017 for example. But this time the odds say that they have more chance of being right.

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And if observers thought that her authority had crumbled back then – what would they say about it now?

In reality Mrs May’s authority has been completely destroyed – from both within and without. Our Friends in Europe taking away some remaining shreds at their meeting last week.

Yet Mrs May has been appeasing the Brussels crocodile at every turn. Will it really eat her in the end?

This week Mrs May apparently promised to somehow bypass the Speaker’s ruling and have another vote on her Dead Donkey Deal. But confusion over its timing – on Tuesday or on Thursday or on Friday evening or not being held at all – shows what a bunch of headless chickens Mrs May, her Cabinet and her political advisors have become.

Instead we are, it seems, going to go through another charade of indicative votes. These will be similar to the last lot of indicative votes but have more choices and cause even more unrest.

These votes being the parliamentary equivalent of rearranging the deck chairs while the ship is sinking. They give politicians a further chance to talk about what might have been and float more unworkable plans for the future – in some mythical land far from reality. Meanwhile the SS Westminster Titanic sinks ever deeper .. with only the Thames mud preventing a significant loss of life.

We all know that we are (were?) supposed to leave the EU on Friday of this week. Despite this the UK parliament requested more time (after 1,000 mainly wasted days) through an extension until 30 June – but our Friends in Europe gave us two weeks – until 12 April – instead.

Yet our guaranteed  leaving date has been fixed at 29 March 2019 by statute for ages. So how can any extension  be possible? How can an EU meeting minute over-rule existing UK law? Some say that 29 March can be simply overruled by a minister’s say-so. Others are equally certain that it would require the equivalent of a treaty change- so needing the approval of both Houses of Parliament plus Royal Assent – and more time

But who is right? And what can we do about it all? Our marches, petitions, social media postings, websites, etc carry no weight within the House. So we must simply wait – to leave, to stay, for Christmas, for Godot, for anything …

And You Thought That Eurovision Was Bad?

Our PM went to beg for more time from our Brussels masters – as expected. But they did not approve her requested June extension – and instead instructed her on their demands. She has just two extra weeks to force through her bad deal. The public meetings were sweetness and light – but in private Mrs May was clearly out of her depth and sticking to the approach that had failed so often before.

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To quote from today’s Guardian – May’s appeal to the heads of state and government was described by sources as “90 minutes of nothing”. She was unable to offer any answers as to how a no-deal Brexit would be avoided if the deal was rejected again. The withdrawal agreement has, so far, gone down by 230 votes and 149 votes: the first and fourth highest defeats faced by any government in the Commons.

After May left the room, France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, commented to his fellow leaders that he had gone into the summit with the belief that there was a 10% chance of the withdrawal agreement being ratified. “After listening to her, I now think 5%,” Macron said. The European council president, Donald Tusk, responded: “That’s a bit optimistic.”

Just how low can our inept administration sink?

We Want To Break Free

Some simple arithmetic for Conservative Party MPs –
a. May-Robins Dead Donkey Deal = Out of office for decades
b. No Deal = Conservative Party survives

Some simple arithmetic for Labour Party MPs –
a. May-Robins Dead Donkey Deal = Labour lumbered with the outcome
b. No Deal = Conservatives blamed for the outcome

So which is it to be – Deal or No Deal?

You know that No Deal got far more support than the alternatives in those recent petitions to the House. Take your lead from your real-world voters.

Update: Mrs May is about to announce something?

A Thousand Days

As the Brexit days, weeks, months and years drag by they keep reminding Grandads just how low British politicians – and even the civil servants – have sunk.

The 2016 national objective was simple and direct – leave the EU. But deliberate delays, obfuscation, double speak, artificial problems, distortions and straight-out lies have been used to create barriers to it at every step along the way.

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Now we are just nine days away from the much-promised leaving date. A date which was set for the maximum allowable notice period and after nine months of government delay.

Any government that actually wanted to implement what they had promised could have submitted the Article 50 letter just days after the June 2016 vote. And since the EU rules set-out a maximum of two years notice – but no minimum – the UK could have legally left on, say, 31 Dec 2016. However the lack of preparation within Whitehall – through incompetence or design – created another barrier to slow or entirely block progress. How pathetic!

This week in the House of Commons some rarely used procedural rules to put a brake on our Prime Minster’s plan to blackmail – or force – MPs into supporting her Dead Donkey Deal. A deal she remains fixated upon while seemingly unaware that the blocking rules are rarely used precisely because no other Prime Minister would have tried to force such a bad bill through Parliament unchanged. However even without the Speaker’s intervention it was unlikely that the bad deal would be accepted – so perhaps the intervention saved the Government from a third vote defeat (deliberately?)

Now the Government – and the country – is in the position of having a deal that needs to be changed drastically to get approval in the UK – but the other 27 parties involved already have a deal that they are happy with. And clearly don’t want to change it.

So a thousand days on from the people’s vote we expect that our PM’s next move will be to beg for more time from our Brussels masters. More national humiliation! Someone with a better grasp of the situation really has to take control and soon.

But the EU are not helping. In fact today’s EU grows increasingly like East Germany was in the 1960s and 70s. A one party state exercising total control over the population. A state where anyone trying to make a break for freedom risked being shot in the back at the border wall. Bring back memories, Angela?

No End In Sight

Despite everything that has happened Mrs May is planning yet another attempt to force her Dead Donkey Deal onto the statute books. A deal that has already been rejected twice. It is so bad that May initially withdrew the bill to avoid the humiliation of a massive defeat. The next time it came up it got the biggest ever rejection of a government bill in modern political history.

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Will it get through at her next attempt next week? If it does that will be the end of any pretence that Parliament represents either the people or what is fair and just. Members of Parliament who let this happen should take the advice of Groucho Marx – I don’t want to belong to any club that would accept me as one of its members – and resign.

But that’s not all. After this next vote Mrs May will head off to EU HQ – it is claimed – to ask for a delay of either a few weeks or a few years! The cynics will think it is more likely that the purpose is to be told what she has to do next …

A delay of a few weeks would be to implement the May-Robins plan – which involves years of transition and sham independence. The delay of a few years would be to start to draw up a different plan – which takes us back to our 2016 position. Both require even more of our taxes to be thrown into the swamp for years and years.

So no Brexit on the promised day and the May-Robins stuffed Dead Donkey will have a law passed to say that it is still considered alive – indeed that it is immortal …

I Don’t Beleeeive It!

Please End This Soon!

As the May-Robins Withdrawal Agreement gets totally smashed for a second time even the most delusional members of parliament must have finally got the message that it is a dead donkey of a deal.

Few Grandads would claim to foresee the future but it did not take Nostradamus to predict –  back in October 2018 – that this agreement would be a very bad deal for Britain. Westminster and Whitehall should Drop the Dead Donkey!

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Similarly many Grandads would simply say it was just common sense to aim for the best outcome as outlined in our posting of two and a half years ago (13-Sep-2016) –  Now any Grandads with a strong commercial background would probably conclude that the best strategy would be to go for the simplest terms agreed as quickly as possible. In fact terms that could be as simple as a polite goodbye with no concessions or commitments. This would put the UK in the same situation as non-European countries and non-EU members like Turkey. So trips to the rest of Europe could involve visas (and therefore for EU citizens coming to the UK) – providing the EU is really prepared to commit to the cost of extra policing at its borders that this visa checking would incur.

Clearly a quick and clean separation would sweep away all the uncertainties but it would also upset those that want to hang on to EU membership for as long as possible. Notable amongst these would be the SNP. However acting decisively at the first opportunity would shorten the period of unrest; even if it brought to a head the issue of a second referendum on Scotland leaving the UK. Surely a price worth paying when considering the alternative of years of political wrangling.

Instead our leaders we have made us suffer all this avoidable angst without coming up with a solution that is any better than that proposed plan of a polite goodbye. But at least we have a date, in law, to leave – the 29th of this month. Westminster politicians will no doubt vote against it. Yet in reality the earlier actions of Mrs May, and those same politicians, have manufactured a situation where there are no viable alternatives. Even the EU is facing up to the UK leaving this month deal-free.

With 15th March approaching some classics scholars might be wondering if the advice of the soothsayer in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar to Beware the Ides of March could equally apply to one or more of our current political leaders. After 993 days of political bluster the pent-up anger must be about to boil over and then anything could happen …