Even though opinion polls have had some notable fails in recent years no one has come up with a better way of gauging public views on a wide range of topics. Despite recent history combining the results of several separate polls can provide a fair chance that any actual results will turn out close to the predictions.
So for the forthcoming UK referendum on EU membership this is the Poll of Polls result from whatukthinks.org as at 29-Mar-2016. Despite all the scare stories about our terrible fate and economic collapse if we leave the results are surprisingly close.
The Conservative Party are leading the way not only with dire warnings and grand promises but also by black-marking any members daring to support leaving or even question the accuracy of the predictions. The Labour Party has its own dissenters to its Remain policy but they seem to be blocked from speaking out. The LibDems have become an irrelevance but the few survivors are in the Remain camp. Meanwhile the SNP have EU membership as an article of faith so it is obvious how they will canvas and vote. UKIP is, of course, struggling on trying to rebuff all the attacks and make the Leave case – as are a few determined others. But it does feel like they are a surrounded and are running out of ammunition.
So there is little chance that the political establishment at Westminster will provide much support for the Leave campaign. Rather the vast majority of MPs will be trying to sink it without trace. The same goes for Brussels – along with the political leaders of every EU member state. Not surprising since they all need the UK to help pay the bills and provide their citizens with jobs.
When you add in the pressure to remain from countries like the USA and China the odds of the UK leaving the EU ought to be 100s to 1. But clearly the average voter remains unconvinced .. and now there are less than three months to go.
A Message From Europe – With Brussels being the latest city to suffer at the hands of suicidal religious fanatics the whole concept of a unified European state with free movement and common values is again called into question.
The BBC have made millions out of Top Gear over the years – and are still making money from repeats all around the world. But the Jezzer, Captain Slow and Hamster show had been in gradual decline for years – with a best before date that has been slipping further into TV history.
Why would any BBC show want to feature a one-off US publicity vehicle – complete with advertising – burning up public roads anywhere in the UK? How does this 845hp Hoonigan Mustang conversion – sponsored by Monster Energy – breaking so many traffic laws fit with our public service broadcaster’s declared objectives? And how does Chris Evans’ claim that he was not involved in the Cenotaph stunts fit with his supposed lead role in the show? Surely shipping a one-off car and support team from the States, closing roads and booking actors for a sham marriage at St Paul’s Cathedral in a segment estimated to cost £100,000 would have needed his personal approval? If not then who is taking the lead role? And why would Evans not know what was planned in some detail even if not in charge?
Yet politicians, in both Britain and the rest of Europe, have continued to make concessions and give support for exactly that – a potentially disastrous expansion into Asia. Failing to see – or simply choosing to ignore – what many ordinary citizens find blindingly obvious.
Pro-EU campaigners have avoided a potentially disastrous EU development as the NHS has now come out in support of the health benefits of the planned EU version of the English Breakfast.
Overseas the governments of most other EU countries have warmly supported the new EU rules – with only Spain objecting since it would impact their tourist industry. However Spain and most other EU member states also have indicated that they will not be able to police the new rules without additional funding. Meanwhile in Germany a pork licence will be available to its citizens as a free download.
Today sees the start of the World Track Cycling Championships at the site of the 2012 Olympics in London. Many competitors there will be hoping to show selectors that they are on track for winning medals at the next Olympics in Rio. Certainly Team GB will have their best opportunity yet to shine in front of a home crowd before August comes around. Many other sports will have the same objectives in mind during the build up . And even the media will start to pick up its coverage of less popular sports as the Games draw nearer.