Even though opinion polls have had some notable fails in recent years no one has come up with a better way of gauging public views on a wide range of topics. Despite recent history combining the results of several separate polls can provide a fair chance that any actual results will turn out close to the predictions.
So for the forthcoming UK referendum on EU membership this is the Poll of Polls result from whatukthinks.org as at 29-Mar-2016. Despite all the scare stories about our terrible fate and economic collapse if we leave the results are surprisingly close.
The Conservative Party are leading the way not only with dire warnings and grand promises but also by black-marking any members daring to support leaving or even question the accuracy of the predictions. The Labour Party has its own dissenters to its Remain policy but they seem to be blocked from speaking out. The LibDems have become an irrelevance but the few survivors are in the Remain camp. Meanwhile the SNP have EU membership as an article of faith so it is obvious how they will canvas and vote. UKIP is, of course, struggling on trying to rebuff all the attacks and make the Leave case – as are a few determined others. But it does feel like they are a surrounded and are running out of ammunition.
So there is little chance that the political establishment at Westminster will provide much support for the Leave campaign. Rather the vast majority of MPs will be trying to sink it without trace. The same goes for Brussels – along with the political leaders of every EU member state. Not surprising since they all need the UK to help pay the bills and provide their citizens with jobs.
When you add in the pressure to remain from countries like the USA and China the odds of the UK leaving the EU ought to be 100s to 1. But clearly the average voter remains unconvinced .. and now there are less than three months to go.