POSTINGS

19-Feb-2024

Dark Clouds

As Grandad reported back in June 2022 senior NATO figures were warning that the war in Ukraine could drag on for years - while the UK military were pointing out that they may have smart, modern weapons but not in sufficient quantity to last more than a few weeks in a full scale war. And while the missiles, tanks and heavy weaponry might be good the available UK-EU troops would be vastly out numbered.

CaptainBlogsToday we have a Russian army that still lacks modern weapons but has gained two years of experience in the harsh reality of fighting a full scale war. And despite the huge losses and need to conscript criminals and retired soldiers their numbers are still enormous. In contrast NATO members have the best weapons but the available UK-EU troops may be fragmented, out-numbered and lacking combat experience.

The scenario of a large but poorly trained and commanded Russian army versus a West lacking the manpower and reserves for an extended fight creates some worrying outcomes.

The most dangerous consequence being that NATO - rather than Russia - has to resort to nuclear weapons to stop the Russian advance before NATO’s stocks of conventional weapons run out.

Back in 2022 it was already clear that Europe would need a rapid increase in its arms production and stocks to have any chance of facing an extended conflict. But as far as we know there has been no major rearmament programmes by any of our NATO allies - and the British armed forces are struggling to meet their peace time commitments. Even big ticket prestige items like aircraft carriers seem to be lacking the personel required to operate them in a serious conflict. It is not even clear that the weapons already sent to Ukraine have been replaced - meaning that we are less-well defended than we were before February 2022

If Ukraine runs out of arms and ammunition supplied by NATO, as is now a possibility, then Russia will over-run them and press on westwards quickly before its European neighbours can boost their defences.

The dark clouds of 1930’s Europe have returned along with another all-powerful, deranged psychopath in power.

tags: WW3, war, nuclear

 

29-Jan-2024

Canute Returns?

canute_270Canute was king of three countries - England, Denmark and Norway. He lived from 994 to 1035 AD and is best known for the story that he attempted to rule the waves by commanding the tide to halt its advance. This is interpreted as a delusional attempt to avert the inevitable. However the Danish king was more likely to have been showing his courtiers that even Canute the Great could not control nature.

In 2015 the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris set long-term goals for all nations to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions enough to hold the global temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C below.

Since then there has been greatly increased awareness and many positive actions to cut carbon emissions. But it seems increasingly clear that the Earth’s climate is actually warming faster. Fast enough for 2024 to quite likely see the average world temperature exceed the +1.5°C target. And the aim of staying well below +2°C looking increasingly hard to achieve.

Global climate is being studied by many of the world’s finest brains - but there is no precedent for this scenario to use as a guide ... The Paris agreement could turn out to be just a feeble human attempt to stop the greater forces of  nature.

tags: Climate, escalation, vain, unprecedented, delusion

 

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30-Dec-2023

Pantomime Season

With little in the way of good news for most of 2023 we at least have the seasonal diversion of pantomime ...

However only small proportion of this art form is being played out on the stage .. and much of it has lacked real entertainment value - more like despair and frustration.

In Russia crazy Putin not only remains in power and looks no more seriously ill than he did when he launched the reckless invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In fact he still seems coldly unconcerned by the accumulating cost and loss of life - even the Russian lives.

The people of Ukraine have suffered almost two years of fighting-off a military super power using donated weapons and a largely conscripted army. A heavy price placed on one country trying to stop Mad Vlad escalating his aggression into a Europe-wide conflict.

But it’s not just been Ukraine fighting terrorism. There is also Israel taking revenge on Gaza terrorists, Venezuela threatening to overrun western Guyana, Yemen attacking neutral shipping heading for Suez, North Korea arming rogue regimes and China quietly waiting for its opportunity to invade Taiwan. And all the time the growing problems of migration and climate change are de-stabilising governments globally.

ScotlandsFinest1Back in the UK the Westminster government fragments through a combination internal party disputes, external economy pressures and the prospect of a general election by next summer.

Meanwhile in Scotland the traditional pantomime plays out at Holyrood as Humus Yousless takes the SNP down the same road as its previous leaders - independence at any cost. And it’s still that curious form of independence that seeks to give itself away to the much greater powers running the show in Brussels - as soon as it gets the chance.

Not the best lead-up to the start of 2024. A year that is expected to see political changes at home and abroad as well as conflicts and lawless social breakdowns.

In the circumstances a Happy New Year is even more deeply wished for ...

tags: war, death, worldwide, madness

 

24-Jun-2023

Mid-Summer Madness

Back in early June Britain Lacks Talent approached its 16th series final with the voices of complaint getting louder. With growing numbers pulling holes in the crumbling facade of impartiality and honesty after another outsider is given a spot in the final totally against the run of play. All the acts that did not get through have had little to say (were gagging orders pre-conditions?) but those that know they were better will have had a sad return to their day jobs. The following final did nothing to quieten the moans - as two talented and hard working young finalists were out-voted in favour of a crazy, high-vis jacket wearing, comic from Norway ... Figures! Hopefully the promised quarter million pound prize will be enough for him to quit while ahead.

Rasputin_200Meanwhile in Ukraine early June saw the Wagner mercenaries pulling back and leaving the Russian army in control. The official line being that their tasks had been achieved. However an alternative view is that they have had enough and want to get out while they can i.e. before a Ukrainian counter-offensive cuts them off. That week’s drone attacks on the outskirts of Moscow were not from long-range raising concerns in the Kremlin that Russians were involved.

However today all of that changed as the Wagner forces showed they had totally different plans. Their taking control of the city of Rostov-on-Don seemingly without a shot being fired marked the beginning of a military coup. The almost total lack of response from the Russian Army must be interpreted as either tacit support, fear or a simply lack of capability. Further stories in the media claim that a separate Wagner force is heading to Moscow to take power. The powers in Moscow are preparing defences but it remains to be seen if the defenders actually put up a fight.

Not that any of this will impact the British mid-summer social schedule of horse races, tennis, cricket and Glastonbury... and the BBC’s paid holidays covering safe events.

tags: War, Europe, Russia, Mad Vlad, Kremlin, Death

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14-May-2023

History Repeats

Last night saw the latest in the long line of Eurovision Song Contests (ESCs) - and even though every song was new the result turned out to be strangely familiar.

Eurovision2023aFirstly Sweden lived-up to their favourite status - just - by winning for the 7th time. And the UK reverted to its frequent tail-end placing by finishing in 25th position [out of 26]. With our only bright spot being to finish ahead of Germany’s Lord of the Lost. But congrats to the BBC’s Liverpool / Ukraine team that got through the whole complex mega-event with few obvious hitches.

However the whole camp, multi-day, muti-million pound event did very little of practical value to help Ukraine expel its Russian invaders. The continued exclusion of Russia and its collaborators and the moral support for the victims did help in some small way. But more weapons, ammunition and trained fighters are far greater needs.

tags: war, conflict, Russia, Ukraine, Eurovision, UK, Sweden

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6-May-2023

Coronation Day

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24-Apr-2023

Spring Has Sprung

MunsterManNo posts for over two months - but the world keeps turning ...

True the war in Ukraine - as reported in the UK - has become somewhat bogged down in terms of territory gained or lost. And there is a feeling that Russia has now played all the cards it had - short of nuclear mass destruction. However lives are still being lost on both sides - and the damage to infra-structure continues to mount.

The Russian command seems to put little value on the lives of its troops - mere expendable pawns - but the surviving soldiers might make them regret their callous disregard. Mad Vlad Putin and his Imperial style of command could well trigger a revolt of the military like the one the ended the reign of the Czar.

Back on the domestic front the big political surprise was the sudden resignation of Scotland’s First Minister for no believable reasons. Rapidly followed by police raids, more resignations and unexplained missing funds. The total domination of the SNP has evaporated leaving the new First Minister looking lost and in charge of a sinking political battleship. How could anyone in the SNP leadership have contrived to be left with a mint £100,000 camper van on the ex-First Minister’s mother-in-law’s drive - or have considered it a legitimate party expense?

Coronation1953-1But it’s not all bad news. First we have the coronation of King Charles III. A rare event that will be a first - for anyone not able to remember 1953. Hopefully the 2023 edition will be remembered for good weather and a happy time with friends and family - as it was last time.

But it’s a sign of the times that there are subjects of the crown who consider their views so important - and their causes so serious that they need to disrupt what the majority want to see and support. Their cries ring out. Ban horse racing! Ban oil! Ban the monarchy! Ban meat! Ban the police! Ban cars! Ban .... whatever!

Then shortly after the coronation we have Liverpool hosting the Ukrainian winners of the Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) from last year. This is quite an event for the BBC to organise especially when it is looking for voluntary redundancies to help with its struggling finances. Quite why it agreed to hold it is unclear - but there is growing evidence that the current TV licence revenue could decline rapidly as on-line services takeover from TV & radio programme transmissions. That aside the British entry for 2023 could get as high as a top-ten place - partly because of the politics. But the chance of getting near betting favourites Sweden in the final score are close to zero.

Finally here’s to the memory of all those lost in recent months. They will be missed ...

tags: war, conflict, Russia, Ukraine, Scotland, politics, King, crown

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12-Feb-2023

Bring Back Self Sufficiency

Despite almost 12 months of fighting Russia has not destroyed the heroic Ukrainian resistance. It has however lost huge numbers of personnel - some reports claiming over 700 soldiers lost in one day. And it has used up world war quantities of ammunition, vehicles and missiles partly because the most effective Ukrainian weapons have been supplied by NATO governments.

Rasputin_200Within the next few weeks there are predictions that Russia will throw even more troops, shells and missiles into an all-out assault in a renewed attempt by Putin to crush the nation and replace the population with Russians. The fact that a terminally-ill Putin is still in control being the black cloud hanging over all of eastern Europe. And the need for the Ukrainian edition of the Eurovision Song Contest to come from Liverpool shows what could become the norm if Putin wins.

If the sheer numbers on the Russian side do overwhelm the defenders - and Kyiv falls - then expect the conflict to spill over westwards. At first into former Soviet republics then into a full WW3. If this happens UK troops will be manning the front line and the British Isles a sitting target for long range missile attacks. At this point the years of cut-backs on defence spending and the reliance of overseas suppliers for both weapons and ammunition will come home to roost.

A clear lesson learnt on both world wars was that victory went to the side that could produce the most weapons. Something forgotten by today’s controllers of our defence budgets. You would have hoped that Putin’s attack last February was the wake-up call for boosting the manufacture of munitions. But no evidence has been seen of this happening.

It is right to help Ukraine by providing weapons ammunition and training. Most of their army is, after all, just normal civilians defending their homeland. But the lack of additional investment means that the UK is in danger of  being defenceless should escalation occur. And with politicians like Boris Johnson saying that ALL our fighter jets should go to Ukraine it’s not just the deranged Putin that we have to worry about.

Come the 13th of May the best situation would be for Ukraine to be celebrating and never needing to host any international events in exile again. And that the sovereignty of nations is respected world-wide.

tags: War, Europe, Russia, Mad Vlad, Kremlin, Death

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27-Jan-2023

Don’t Start From Here - 2

It was 10 years ago that this blog raised concerns about the proposed London to Birmingham rail link - HS2. Concerns that were shared by many others. Then the project had a base level budget of £16,800 million for the initial London to Birmingham section of the line. Both the London and Birmingham ends having an interchange station as well a terminus.

At the northern end the interchange will be in Solihull and be a relatively simple design providing two double-sided island platforms. Current estimates are for this station to cost £370 million and be ready by 2026 - the year that the whole London-Birmingham line was supposed to open.

OldOakCommon1At the southern end the interchange will be at Old Oak Common - the site in the days of steam of the Great Western Railway’s main London locomotive deport.

This station is positioned amongst a network of rail lines the most important of which are the mainline to Bristol, Devon, Cornwall, South Wales and the new Crossrail line. At first politicians tried to kill off the station plans but engineering common sense eventually silenced the critics. Now the station is predicted to be one of the busiest and most important in the capital. The 14 platforms will form a new super-hub set to be the best-connected and largest new railway station ever built in the UK.

As the importance of Old Oak Common Interchange has increased so the cost-benefit figures for Euston have become much less appealing. The section from Euston to the interchange is a most complex and costly few miles. And since all the HS2 trains will stop at the interchange they won’t have chance to get up much speed relative to conventional trains or even the Underground. The time to get here from Euston via HS2 services will be little different to that from Paddington or the Central London stations via the Elizabeth Line

So why spend a large chunk of the overall budget on a section of track that will add little additional public access and slow down the high-speed services?

Terminating at Old Oak Common could cut a significant chunk out of the excessive and escalating project costs. It might even bring forward the completion date. Anyone who lives or works within walking distance of Euston (and commutes to / from Birmingham) will be disappointed - but this is supposed to be a national project.

HS2 will remain a loss-making burden on the UK tax payer for the whole of its projected 60 year lifespan - so let’s hope that politicians don’t make this misguided project even worse ....

tags: railway, hst, high speed, victorian, transport, big spender

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22-Jan-2023

FlamesHell6

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11-Jan-2023

Divorced From Reality

Today’s high profile story on the Express website shows that old and long-discredited story lines are still useable in 2023.

anchorman2023To quote ... UK snow forecast: -12C Polar blast to spark worst January deluge in a decade
Winter is about to roar back with a -12C Polar blast threatening one of the worst January snow deluges for more than a decade. By Nathan Rao 11:01, Wed, Jan 11, 2023 | UPDATED: 13:36, Wed, Jan 11, 2023

So let’s see how accurately this forecast matches to reality. Based on the past record of Nathan and his sources any degree of match-up will be down to sheer coincidence. [Update Sun 12 Feb 2023 - No snow on any day at Grandad Towers.]

Much the same could be said about the headline-filling book out this week that claims to be non-fiction by Harry Windsor (formerly known as Prince). Grandad won’t be buying a copy - and given the number of reviews, quotes and interviews in circulation there seems little point - even if the hard back version is going at half-price.

Not only is the book hyped-up in the extreme but what Harry seems to have told his ghost-writer does not always align with the known facts. For example to claim that he was at Eton college when the Queen Mother died when he was in fact on a skiing holiday in Switzerland with Charles and William is very wide of the mark. Being alone at college rather than having fun in the snow with his father and brother may be a better fit to the intended storyline but it’s certainly fictional rather than factual.

But the growing list of dubious recollections cannot all be levelled at the ghost-writer. It has been Harry himself making statements to camera that are sometimes hard to believe. His various complaints about his cottage at Kensington Palace are typical. It was too small and lacked the status and facilities befitting a prince. The ceilings were too low - and he did not know who lived here before but if they were taller than him they would be banging their heads all the time. Given that the prior occupants were William and Kate the whinging distortions and selective amnesia of Harry call into question his grip on reality.

Any lack of accuracy has, however, not stopped the stories being very profitable for the renegade couple. Quite how long the millions keep arriving in sufficient quantities to fund their expensive lifestyle is anyone’s guess. But they have already been given far more the average citizen could dream of - even with a lottery win. One day life may take back what it has given them ...

tags: Lies, distortions, half-truths, invented, artificial, fame, privilege, media

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Earlier postings ...

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FOOTNOTES

1. We don’t claim copyright on any of this stuff. We won’t hassle you if you reuse it. If you don’t like it here then just move on. We don’t use cookies because we never track your actions. Some of this stuff may link to other sites. What they do is their responsibility. We used to have have links that promised to pay us for any traffic generated but the amounts were peanuts. So these are now being cleared out.

2. We haven’t been mis-sold any financial services. We don’t want to make any legal claims against anyone. We don’t want to help you move your offshore funds. We don’t have parcels that could not be delivered. We do have the best deals on utilities. Our web page rankings are not a problem ...


 

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